Chart of the Week | Bitcoin All-Time Highs

Good morning everyone and welcome to our Chart of the Week series! Every week we provide you with one of the most informative Bitcoin charts, sent directly to your inbox. This week we dive into Bitcoin’s volatility compared with the rest of the market.

Risk assets continue their meteoric recovery from the post-Liberation Day lows, and Bitcoin is back above $100,000. In fact, not only have the Nasdaq and S&P 500 completely reversed all post-tariff decline, but they are both now higher on a year-to-date (YTD) basis, and both are back in a bull market and within 4% of their all-time highs.

While risk-on assets have experienced a notable ‘V-shaped recovery’, gold has lagged behind, remaining flat since April 2^nd. Without dampening the optimism too much, it should be noted that oil is still down over 13% from its April 1^st close, indicating that growth concerns continue to weigh on the markets generally. Another laggard continues to be the dollar (as measured by the DXY), which is also lagging over 3% below its pre-Liberation Day level.

These growth concerns don’t appear to concern the equity markets much, as evidenced by a violent recovery from their April 7^th lows. This has helped propel Bitcoin back above $100k, where it has firmly held over the past seven days. Not only has bitcoin showed strength in USD terms, but actually made a new all-time high, denominated in Nasdaq. We’ve been noting this particular way of evaluating bitcoin’s relative performance, and continue to believe that the new all-time highs indicate even greater strength in bitcoin, than may meet the eye in dollar terms.

In part due to gold’s weakness (it is exactly 0% since April 1^st), bitcoin/gold has also bounced notably, as we had predicted two weeks ago. Bitcoin still has some catching up to do to make it back to its prior all-time high of 40oz per bitcoin (set in late 2024), but we continue to think that the next year will be marked by bitcoin outperformance over gold. 

While risk-assets are likely to see a short-term correction after such a violent rally, we do think it’s notable that bitcoin has also diverged from the DXY, one measure of the dollar’s strength versus other fiat currencies. This particular Liberation Day phenomenon appears to be holding quite firm, which, coupled with the outperformance versus the Nasdaq and gold over the past two weeks, indicates strong demand (and relative outperformance) of bitcoin.

We think that the fact bitcoin has consolidated and held firm above $100k, along with the various outperformance metrics we already mentioned, are a pretty clear signal that bitcoin should continue to show relative strength in the near-term, most likely making new all-time highs within the next month. Bitcoin’s move up appears much healthier than other risk-on assets from a technical standpoint, and the longer-term timeframes all look very bullish from a price-action perspective. 

That’s it for this week’s edition, remember to stay humble and stack sats!